Does Starting Ranked Give You an Advantage?
A 12-season matched analysis finds that teams beginning in the AP Top 25 stay meaningfully higher in the poll than otherwise similar teams, but most of the gap disappears by November.
By Rankrly Research · Published September 2, 2026
A preseason ranking is supposed to be temporary. Once the games begin, the poll should have enough new evidence to judge teams on what they have actually done.
Here is the basic test. Take a team that was ranked before the season and pair it with a team that was not. The two teams must be from the same year, have the same FBS record, and rank almost identically based only on results. Then compare where AP voters placed them.
Three terms to know
Matched pair
Two teams from the same week with the same FBS record and nearly the same results-based ranking.
Ranking boost
How many AP poll places higher the preseason-ranked team sat than its matched opponent.
Top 25 gap
The difference between the two Top 25 appearance rates. Because both rates are percentages, the gap is measured in percentage points.
The answer
Yes, especially in September.
Across 2,002 matched pairs, the team that started ranked sat an average of 6.70 places higher in the AP poll. It appeared in the Top 25 63.24% of the time, compared with 22.63% for the similar team that started unranked. That is a 40.61-point gap.
This does not prove AP voters intentionally favored teams that started ranked. It shows the gap remained even after comparing teams with the same record and almost the same results-based ranking.
6.70
Average ranking boost
40.61-point gap
Top 25 appearance gap
2,002
matched pairs
12
seasons analyzed
Week by week
The advantage is huge early and nearly gone by Week 12
After Week 1, the team that started ranked sat 12.49 places higher than its matched opponent. After Week 12, the average difference was only 0.99 place.
How the preseason head start changes each week
A higher number means the team that started ranked received more of an advantage over its otherwise similar opponent.
After Week 5
6.96 places higher
Among 144 matched pairs, the team that started ranked sat this much higher in the AP poll on average.
All 2,002 results
The adjusted gap favored the preseason-ranked team in 76% of pairs
Each bar shows how many pairs fell within a range of adjusted AP-place differences. Positive values favor the preseason-ranked team; negative values favor the preseason-unranked team.
76.2%
favored the preseason-ranked team
22.2%
favored the preseason-unranked team
4.00
median ranking boost
1.00 to 12.00
middle half of results
Values to the right of zero favor the preseason-ranked team. Values to the left favor the preseason-unranked team. Each bar shows the number of matched pairs in that range.
Starting position matters
Starting in the Top 10 brings the biggest head start
Preseason Top 10
11.38 places
677 matched pairs. The team that started ranked made the Top 25 in 81.83% of comparisons, versus 31.91% for the similar team that started unranked.
Difference in Top 25 appearances
49.93-point gap
Preseason #11–25
4.31 places
1,325 matched pairs. The team that started ranked made the Top 25 in 53.74% of comparisons, versus 17.89% for the similar team that started unranked.
Difference in Top 25 appearances
35.85-point gap
Season check
Teams that started ranked finished higher in every season studied
The size varies, but no single year creates the overall result. The unusual 2020 season has the largest estimate and remains in the main sample rather than being quietly removed.
2014
7.08
AP places
2015
5.36
AP places
2016
5.66
AP places
2017
6.94
AP places
2018
6.99
AP places
2019
7.67
AP places
2020
8.48
AP places
2021
5.41
AP places
2022
5.19
AP places
2023
7.06
AP places
2024
7.49
AP places
2025
7.20
AP places
Robustness checks
The conclusion survives several reasonable changes
These checks change one assumption or isolate one part of the sample. They show how sensitive the result is without presenting a new matching method as though it were the original analysis.
Published estimate
All matched pairs, with every team outside the Top 25 treated as position 26.
Matched pairs
2,002
Average boost
+6.70
Within one resume place
Tightens the published two-place matching limit to one place.
Matched pairs
1,581
Average boost
+7.27
Exclude the 2020 season
Removes the pandemic season while keeping the original matches from every other year.
Matched pairs
1,819
Average boost
+6.52
Weeks 1 through 5
Restricts the result to the opening part of the season.
Matched pairs
1,024
Average boost
+9.92
Weeks 10 through 15
Restricts the result to the later part of the regular season.
Matched pairs
491
Average boost
+1.93
Treat unranked as position 30
Keeps every match but moves teams outside the Top 25 four places lower.
Matched pairs
2,002
Average boost
+8.32
Treat unranked as position 40
Keeps every match but moves teams outside the Top 25 fourteen places lower.
Matched pairs
2,002
Average boost
+12.38
The position-30 and position-40 checks do not claim that every unranked team was actually 30th or 40th. They test whether the main conclusion depends on assigning all unranked teams position 26.
Matched-pair explorer
Inspect the comparisons behind the headline
Filter every matched pair by team, season, week, or starting tier. “Preseason-ranked” and “preseason-unranked” describe where each team began the season. The AP column shows its status in the poll for the week being compared.
Raw AP gap compares the two current poll positions. Adjusted gap accounts for the small difference between their results-only resume ranks. “Unranked” means outside the current Top 25.
Loading matched pairs...
Program lookup
See how one program fared in its matched comparisons
Pick a program to turn the analysis around and view every result from that team's perspective. Positive numbers mean the selected program sat higher than its matched opponent. Negative numbers mean it sat lower.
Choose any FBS program to see every time it appears in a matched pair.
Methodology
Match the record, then match the resume
The goal is to compare teams that look as similar as possible based on current-season results. The only major difference left is whether one team appeared in the preseason AP Top 25.
- 1
Use every regular-season AP poll from 2014 through 2025 after the preseason poll, along with completed games between two FBS teams through that point in the season.
- 2
Build a results-only Colley ranking for each season and week. It uses wins, losses, and opponent connections without preseason expectations, margin of victory, recruiting rankings, or conference weights.
- 3
For each team that started in the AP Top 25, find one team that started unranked in the same season and week. The two teams must have identical FBS records and results-only Colley ranks within two places.
- 4
Use each control team once per season and week so one unranked team cannot support several comparisons.
- 5
Treat a team outside the AP Top 25 as position 26, then subtract the small remaining resume-rank difference from the raw AP-position gap.
- 6
Average those matched differences overall, by week, by preseason tier, and by season.
What one match means
Same season. Same poll week. Same FBS wins and losses. Results-based rankings no more than two places apart. Each unranked comparison team is used once.
Limits
What this result does not prove
Sources and reproducibility
Polls, games, and a resume-only baseline
The published dataset contains 22,452 observations. One observation is one team in one AP poll week. Those observations produced 2,002 matched pairs. FCS games are excluded from both the records and the results-based ranking.
Bottom line
Starting ranked looks like a real head start, not a season-long guarantee.
The preseason poll matters most when voters have only a few games to judge. By November, actual results have erased most of the difference. Starting ranked helps a team get noticed early, but it does not protect that team all season.