Season 2025

Virginia

Record 9-2

balancedsmothered4 won ugly2 lost ugly

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Net success rate

+5.9pp

Adj net success rate

+5.9pp

Per-play advantage

+15.2pp

Standard downs control

+3.3pp

Passing NSR

+6.2pp

Rushing NSR

+5.7pp

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Adj NSR: Success-rate edge after tempo and opponent adjustments.PPA diff: Explosiveness margin using predicted points added (PPA).Std ctrl: Owning the easy downs — success + explosiveness on standard downs.

Power ratings & disruption

Sourced from SP+, ESPN FPI, Elo, and game havoc tracking

SP+ rank

#31

Off SP+ rank

#56

Def SP+ rank

#20

SP+ special teams

+0.5

FPI resume rank

#36

Elo rating

1,637

Off havoc rate

14.0%

Def havoc rate

18.6%

Control vs Chaos

Smothered profile; explosive spike vs Louisville (Wk 6)

Season trajectory

Passing NSR

Rushing NSR

Top efficiency wins

Week 3 vs William & Mary

55-16 (W)

Adj NSR +51.5pp

PPA diff +74.1pp

NSR +51.5pp

TPI rank —

Week 1 vs Coastal Carolina

48-7 (W)

Adj NSR +31.6pp

PPA diff +77.8pp

NSR +31.6pp

TPI rank —

Week 4 vs Stanford

48-20 (W)

Adj NSR +22.2pp

PPA diff +25.3pp

NSR +22.2pp

TPI rank —

Top efficiency losses

Week 2 vs NC State

31-35 (L)

Adj NSR -11.7pp

PPA diff -12.6pp

NSR -11.7pp

TPI rank —

Week 11 vs Wake Forest

9-16 (L)

Adj NSR +0.0pp

PPA diff -6.4pp

NSR +0.0pp

TPI rank —

Weekly breakdown

Week 1 • regular

vs Coastal Carolina (48-7)

Net success rate+31.6pp

Adj NSR

+31.6pp

PPA diff

+77.8pp

Explosive tilt

+35.9pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 2 • regular

vs NC State (31-35)

Net success rate-11.7pp

Adj NSR

-11.7pp

PPA diff

-12.6pp

Explosive tilt

+42.8pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 3 • regular

vs William & Mary (55-16)

Net success rate+51.5pp

Adj NSR

+51.5pp

PPA diff

+74.1pp

Explosive tilt

-220.5pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 4 • regular

vs Stanford (48-20)

Net success rate+22.2pp

Adj NSR

+22.2pp

PPA diff

+25.3pp

Explosive tilt

-64.6pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 5 • regular

vs Florida State (46-38)

won ugly

Net success rate-1.2pp

Adj NSR

-1.2pp

PPA diff

+6.8pp

Explosive tilt

-10.4pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 6 • regular

vs Louisville (30-27)

won ugly

Net success rate-18.3pp

Adj NSR

-18.3pp

PPA diff

-10.8pp

Explosive tilt

+60.3pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 8 • regular

vs Washington State (22-20)

won ugly

Net success rate-2.3pp

Adj NSR

-2.3pp

PPA diff

-8.7pp

Explosive tilt

-9.5pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 9 • regular

vs North Carolina (17-16)

won ugly

Net success rate-3.5pp

Adj NSR

-3.5pp

PPA diff

-4.4pp

Explosive tilt

+11.8pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 10 • regular

vs California (31-21)

Net success rate+5.3pp

Adj NSR

+5.3pp

PPA diff

+23.7pp

Explosive tilt

+18.7pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 11 • regular

vs Wake Forest (9-16)

Net success rate+0.0pp

Adj NSR

+0.0pp

PPA diff

-6.4pp

Explosive tilt

+3.4pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge

Week 12 • regular

vs Duke (34-17)

Net success rate+9.1pp

Adj NSR

+9.1pp

PPA diff

+29.8pp

Explosive tilt

+37.1pp

Line yards edge

Stuff edge

Power success edge